The current betting line for the upcoming matchup between the Houston Cougars and the Oklahoma State Cowboys is hovering around 14 to 15 points in favor of Houston. On the surface, that might seem reasonable, but a closer look at both teams’ recent performances, roster situations, and coaching stability suggests that the spread might actually be too low. Houston appears to be the far superior team at this stage of the season, and it’s worth questioning why the line hasn’t widened more, especially after updates surrounding the health of Houston's starting quarterback.
Conner Weigman's Status Shouldn't Hold the Line Back
One of the early reasons the line may have stayed around two touchdowns is the uncertainty surrounding Houston quarterback Conner Weigman, who entered concussion protocol following last week’s loss to Texas Tech. While that understandably introduced some hesitation among oddsmakers and bettors, head coach Willie Fritz has confirmed that Weigman is ready to go and will start this weekend’s game against Oklahoma State. Despite this news, the spread hasn’t moved significantly.
The fact that the line has remained mostly unchanged even after confirmation of Weigman’s availability suggests that sportsbooks may be underrating the advantage Houston holds with a healthy starting quarterback. With Weigman under center, Houston’s offense has been balanced and productive, and his return removes the only major variable that might justify a conservative spread.
Houston Dominates Statistically
Statistically, Houston has separated itself from Oklahoma State in every major category this season. Houston is averaging over 27 points per game while allowing just 17.6. In contrast, Oklahoma State is averaging only 16.4 points while surrendering 36.2. Houston’s total offense and defense have both been far more efficient, outgaining and out-defending their opponents on a weekly basis, while Oklahoma State has struggled to move the ball and stop anyone on the other side.
Houston was undefeated until last week’s loss to a tough Texas Tech team, which came under difficult circumstances with Weigman exiting the game early. Even with that blemish, the Cougars have proven they can compete at a high level. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has only covered the spread once in five games and continues to trend downward as the season progresses.
Oklahoma State’s Roster Instability and Coaching Turmoil
Beyond the numbers, Oklahoma State is dealing with internal instability that further tips the scales. The firing of longtime head coach Mike Gundy and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has left the program in disarray. More importantly, the timing of Gundy’s departure triggered a 30-day transfer window, and the team has since seen a steady stream of players exiting the program. That kind of midseason roster churn is devastating, especially for a team already lacking depth and struggling on both sides of the ball.
Each week, Oklahoma State loses more contributors, forcing the remaining coaching staff to reshuffle lineups and rely on unproven players. That level of uncertainty has directly impacted their ability to compete, and it’s difficult to envision them stabilizing in time to challenge a well-coached Houston squad.
Why the Line Should Be Closer to 17 or More
Considering Houston’s statistical edge, the return of its starting quarterback, and Oklahoma State’s ongoing personnel issues, it’s surprising the spread hasn’t climbed to 17 or higher. Houston has been consistent, productive, and well-coached all season. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is a program in transition, battling weekly roster turnover, coaching vacancies, and declining morale.
Historically, when a team is outmatched in this many areas—talent, coaching, execution, and depth—the spread tends to reflect it. But for now, the line has been slow to move, likely due to early-week uncertainty around Weigman and a wait-and-see approach from the betting public. That creates potential value for those backing Houston, especially if the Cougars play to their usual standard.
Conclusion
There’s little debate about which team is better heading into this game. Houston has the stronger roster, the steadier coaching staff, and the healthier program. Oklahoma State, now a shell of its former self, is struggling to even keep its lineup intact from week to week. With Conner Weigman cleared to play and Houston eager to bounce back from their first loss of the season, this game has all the makings of a blowout. If the spread stays around 14 or 15 points, it may be underestimating just how lopsided this matchup could become.