On paper, this week’s Big 12 matchup between Cincinnati and Oklahoma State looks like a mismatch. The Bearcats are 5–1, rolling through their schedule and turning heads as one of the conference's most surprising success stories. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has stumbled to a 1–5 start, lost its head coach and defensive coordinator, and watched a large chunk of its roster enter the transfer portal. It’s no wonder the Cowboys enter the game as 22.5-point underdogs.
But if there’s one thing the Big 12 has made a habit of, it’s turning expectations on their heads.
A Conference Built on Chaos
The Big 12 has long been a conference where records, rankings, and point spreads are more like suggestions than guarantees. Upsets are part of the DNA. Top-ranked teams stumble in hostile environments, last-place squads pull off wins that defy explanation, and momentum shifts faster than fans can settle into their seats.
That kind of parity is what gives even a struggling Oklahoma State team a puncher’s chance this weekend. Cincinnati might be the better team on paper, but college football games aren't played on paper—and OSU has very little to lose, which makes them dangerous.
Cincinnati is Strong, But Not Invincible
Cincinnati has exceeded expectations this season, emerging as one of the top contenders in the Big 12 after a rocky first year in the conference. The Bearcats have covered the spread in four of their six games, showing they can exceed betting expectations. But when favored by 22.5 points or more, they're just 1–1 against the spread—a small sample size, but one that hints at some vulnerability when expected to dominate.
There’s also the classic trap-game setup here. Cincinnati could be tempted to look ahead to next week’s matchup or underestimate an OSU team that’s fallen far from its usual standard. That mental edge, paired with a rowdy home crowd in Stillwater, could create just enough of a spark for things to get weird.
OSU Has Nothing to Lose And That Could Be Everything
This Oklahoma State team, for all its chaos and instability, still has athletes, pride, and just enough unpredictability to cause problems. Without a full coaching staff and with expectations at rock bottom, the Cowboys are free to take risks. Trick plays, aggressive special teams strategies, fourth-down gambles. It's all on the table for this desperate OSU team.
Those kinds of wildcard tactics are often what fuel college football’s biggest upsets. A fake punt here, a flea-flicker there, and suddenly a 22.5-point underdog is hanging around deep into the second half. And when underdogs hang around long enough, strange things tend to happen.
The Reality Check—and the Wildcard
Of course, none of this guarantees an upset. Cincinnati has been consistent, physical, and well-coached. They’ve taken care of business against weaker teams and are rightfully heavy favorites. But in a season that’s already produced its fair share of chaos across the Big 12 and beyond, writing off Oklahoma State might be premature.
It’s been a bizarre season for the Cowboys and bizarre seasons have a way of producing bizarre outcomes. They may be battered, but they're at home, desperate, and in prime position to catch a better team sleeping.
In a conference where upsets are part of the brand, don’t be shocked if Oklahoma State finds a way to make this one interesting. And if things get weird—as they often do in October—it might not even take a miracle for the Cowboys to turn this game, and their season, around.